Welcome!

Government Cloud Authors: Elizabeth White, Liz McMillan, Gopala Krishna Behara, Raju Myadam, Kevin Jackson

Related Topics: Java IoT, Linux Containers

Java IoT: Article

Where Is i-Technology Going in 2004?

Where Is i-Technology Going in 2004?

"Some of the remaining visionary talent at Sun will finally become so frustrated with the company's handling of Java that they will quit in disgust."

- Rick Ross, Founder & CEO Javalobby

"So where is it all going?" It's the question every technology sage is always asked, and yet, of course, it's the question that's the most difficult to answer.

Here at JDJ we decided nonetheless to ask a welter of the brightest and most prescient i-technology professionals what they are seeing, what they think the individual pieces in 2004 are, and how those pieces fit into the bigger picture.

Java features prominently, Web services (and associated technologies) looms large, and SOAs (service-oriented architectures) make their debut, building on the Web services buzz but taking us to the kind of loosely coupled, asynchronous, message-oriented paradigms much favored by enterprise architects.

In these globalized times, as the three E's - Excitement, Expertise, and Energy - return to the technology market, it is apparent from the comments that follow that many of the innovations of the last few years are expected at last to bear fruit in 2004, and that the industry's stakeholders - software vendors, developers, technology investors, and users alike - are looking forward to the year ahead with renewed vigor.

What are the common themes that our selected seers identified? We'll let the respondents speak for themselves.

We hope you enjoy what they have to say.

Internet 2.0
Jeremy Allaire, cofounder with his brother "J.J." of Allaire Corporation, which later merged with Macromedia - and now Technologist in Residence at General Catalyst Partners, Boston - says that "We're in the midst of a new convergence of trends that are resulting in what I call Internet 2.0."

Allaire continues: "Like the trends that converged to form the first-generation Internet (commodity PCs, ubiquitous and affordable connectivity to IP networks, prevalence of LANs in corporations, widely available design tools, the introduction of HTTP/ HTML and the Web browser, etc.), these trends are mutually reinforcing, creating an accelerating dynamic."

Allaire's top 10 trends, those he says he's "watching closely and that appear to continue gaining ground," are in Table A.

 

'Repurposing' Applications, Not Inventing Them
Though not a venture capitalist like Allaire, David Litwack - as president and chief executive officer of SilverStream Software, now a senior vice president with Novell and a member of its Worldwide Management Committee - has a wealth of experience in Internet technologies of every stripe. With complete responsibility for Novell's Web Application Development Products, Litwack is well positioned to survey the present and future i-technology scene.

"Too much is made of the specific standards associated with Web services," Litwack observes. "While these are important, it misses the forest for the trees. The key trend is that we are building fewer and fewer pure new applications and instead are increasingly repurposing what we have."

The mechanism for doing this, Litwack explains, is "to virtualize, to create composite or logical applications in front of our physical systems or, in short, to create services."

These services, he says, may sometimes be SOAP/WSDL based and generally will be XML. "But the principle remains the same. Create a logical data source that is constructed from one or more physical systems that represent a real business function as perceived by some audience. The effect is to present to the user an application that looks like it was developed just for them - everything they need to do their job and no more than they need."

That, according to Litwack, is the future. His other, more specific predictions can be read in Table B.

 

Outsourcing in the U.S. Will Fade
From open source to outsourcing, Adam Kolawa, the charismatic and forward-looking president of Parasoft, believes that no theme will be more important in 2004 than "BPO" - business process outsourcing.

"In about a year," predicts Kolawa, "companies will start to see that outsourcing is not working for them as they had hoped.

"Yes," he says, "there's a scare within the industry right now and developers are afraid of losing their jobs, but companies will see that the quality of code developed offshore isn't getting any better and they will end up spending just as much to fix the code as they would have if it was developed by their own team."

There is, nonetheless, another side to the story: "I have had several encounters with other U.S. companies," Kolawa observes, "and I think the productivity of developers is staggeringly low."

He has seen statistics from which it appears that, in the U.S., developers are responsible for about 5,000 -10,000 lines of code each - "which is about a factor of 10 too low to really be productive," he says.

"Something has to change," Kolawa adds, "because if they continue to produce so little, these developers will be out of jobs. The rate of pay developers receive doesn't justify the amount of code they produce."

But BPO, Kolawa insists, will turn out not to be the answer. He offers an example to back up this prediction. "One architect I met recently had a team of 32 programmers working on 100,000 lines of code. They worked with a company in India who claimed to be CMM Level 5 certified. However, when they got their code back it crashed. Apparently the company in India didn't understand the specs."

'Client/Service' Is What's Next
Mitchell Kertzman makes some very interesting prognostications, as befits someone with an almost unique background.

The former CEO of Sybase and co-creator of PowerBuilder is now, in true gamekeeper-turned-poacher fashion, a venture capitalist. From his position as a partner with Hummer Winblad Venture Partners, in San Francisco, he looked toward the new year for us.

"My new view on the industry from the venture capital seat is absolutely fascinating," says Kertzman. "The rumbling about the end of innovation in technology is certainly not true, particularly in software."

Kertzman's thoughts on 2004 and beyond are in Table C. "There are a couple of broad technologies," he says, "that I think will see lots of excitement in 2004."

 

Relentless Outsourcing
Like Kertzman, Rajiv Gupta is one of the leading lights of the technology world. Now CTO of Confluent Software, Gupta is the serial innovator once responsible for HP's "E-Speak" - back in 1999, which was years before its time, making him a perfect choice when it comes to looking forward.

As far as Gupta is concerned, he believes that the technology slump is over for now. "But that does not mean that we will not see continued belt-tightening," he adds.

"We will see more discretionary spending on i-technology products and services," Gupta continues, "but we will also see relentless outsourcing.

"In other words, we'll see further belt-tightening in some areas such as proprietary Unix servers and possibly even the needless upgrade cycles of some software such as MS Office, but we will see a willingness to spend more on software to provide visibility and control in operating an enterprise."

The remainder of Gupta's observations are in Table D.

 

Weblogging and RSS
Tim Bray, as co-inventor of XML, is someone who knows how to set his watch five minutes ahead of other people's.

Not surprisingly, then, XML-based RSS feeds appeal to him, to the extent that he says, without hesitation: "Clearly the most culturally important thing going on at the moment is the explosion of Weblogging and syndication technology."

The two trends are "related but certainly separable," says Bray. "The commercial impact of all this is just impossible to predict," he continues, "but the world in 2005 won't look at all like it did in 2001, and syndication [during 2004] is going to be a big part of the difference."

Some of the other predictions Bray has for 2004 and beyond can be found in Table E.

 

Massive Marketing Spending by MS
Javalobby founder Rick Ross was a natural expert to turn to for a forward-looking exercise like this. Ross can always be relied upon to keep focus, and in Java terms that means keeping an eye on "the competition" - and sure enough he observes "Microsoft will continue to spend more on marketing than most of their 'competitors' generate in total revenue."

Ross is genuinely more concerned about Sun though than about Microsoft, as you can see from his various predictions in Table F.

 

Other Java Voices, Other Java Views
Another voice we naturally wanted to hear is that of Vijay Tella, chief strategy officer, Oracle Application Server (see Table G). We also invited the man considered by many to be "the father of XML," Sun's Jon Bosak (Table H) - whose answers naturally included a reference to his latest baby, UBL - and Wireless Business & Technology's editor-in-chief, Bill Ray (Table I).

 

 

 

'Open Source Will Become a Safe Choice'
One of the best-known "new kids on the Java block" is Marc Fleury, who more formally is the CEO of the JBoss Group. He was one of the many we consulted on the burning question of whether or not open source/Linux poses an economic threat to proprietary software.

A Final Thought for 2004
Let's give the last word though to Java advocate Rick Ross, founder of Javalobby. In response to JDJ's question, "Who in your opinion is the person of the year in the i-technology world and why?," he stated:

The obvious answer to this is "The Unknown Developer," who fights and wins the technical battles without fanfare, much as "The Unknown Soldier" did. I'm tired of the idol-making and ego-stroking in this industry. It has always been the quiet, unknown developer who selects which technologies will succeed or fail and makes the world better for users everywhere.

Development managers and developers alike, JDJ suspects, would say "Amen" to that.

Enjoy your own 2004!

More Stories By Jeremy Geelan

Jeremy Geelan is Chairman & CEO of the 21st Century Internet Group, Inc. and an Executive Academy Member of the International Academy of Digital Arts & Sciences. Formerly he was President & COO at Cloud Expo, Inc. and Conference Chair of the worldwide Cloud Expo series. He appears regularly at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences across six continents. You can follow him on twitter: @jg21.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


@ThingsExpo Stories
It is of utmost importance for the future success of WebRTC to ensure that interoperability is operational between web browsers and any WebRTC-compliant client. To be guaranteed as operational and effective, interoperability must be tested extensively by establishing WebRTC data and media connections between different web browsers running on different devices and operating systems. In his session at WebRTC Summit at @ThingsExpo, Dr. Alex Gouaillard, CEO and Founder of CoSMo Software, presented ...
DXWorldEXPO LLC, the producer of the world's most influential technology conferences and trade shows has announced the 22nd International CloudEXPO | DXWorldEXPO "Early Bird Registration" is now open. Register for Full Conference "Gold Pass" ▸ Here (Expo Hall ▸ Here)
Amazon started as an online bookseller 20 years ago. Since then, it has evolved into a technology juggernaut that has disrupted multiple markets and industries and touches many aspects of our lives. It is a relentless technology and business model innovator driving disruption throughout numerous ecosystems. Amazon’s AWS revenues alone are approaching $16B a year making it one of the largest IT companies in the world. With dominant offerings in Cloud, IoT, eCommerce, Big Data, AI, Digital Assista...
Recently, REAN Cloud built a digital concierge for a North Carolina hospital that had observed that most patient call button questions were repetitive. In addition, the paper-based process used to measure patient health metrics was laborious, not in real-time and sometimes error-prone. In their session at 21st Cloud Expo, Sean Finnerty, Executive Director, Practice Lead, Health Care & Life Science at REAN Cloud, and Dr. S.P.T. Krishnan, Principal Architect at REAN Cloud, discussed how they built...
As ridesharing competitors and enhanced services increase, notable changes are occurring in the transportation model. Despite the cost-effective means and flexibility of ridesharing, both drivers and users will need to be aware of the connected environment and how it will impact the ridesharing experience. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Timothy Evavold, Executive Director Automotive at Covisint, discussed key challenges and solutions to powering a ride sharing and/or multimodal model in the age ...
When shopping for a new data processing platform for IoT solutions, many development teams want to be able to test-drive options before making a choice. Yet when evaluating an IoT solution, it’s simply not feasible to do so at scale with physical devices. Building a sensor simulator is the next best choice; however, generating a realistic simulation at very high TPS with ease of configurability is a formidable challenge. When dealing with multiple application or transport protocols, you would be...
Detecting internal user threats in the Big Data eco-system is challenging and cumbersome. Many organizations monitor internal usage of the Big Data eco-system using a set of alerts. This is not a scalable process given the increase in the number of alerts with the accelerating growth in data volume and user base. Organizations are increasingly leveraging machine learning to monitor only those data elements that are sensitive and critical, autonomously establish monitoring policies, and to detect...
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, a director and senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, discussed the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Dr. Robert Cohen, an economist and senior fellow at the Economic Strategy Institute, presented the findings of a series of six detailed case studies of how large corporations are implementing IoT. The session explored how IoT has improved their economic performance, had major impacts on business models and resulted in impressive ROIs. The companies covered span manufacturing and services firms. He also explored servicification, how manufacturing firms shift from se...
IoT solutions exploit operational data generated by Internet-connected smart “things” for the purpose of gaining operational insight and producing “better outcomes” (for example, create new business models, eliminate unscheduled maintenance, etc.). The explosive proliferation of IoT solutions will result in an exponential growth in the volume of IoT data, precipitating significant Information Governance issues: who owns the IoT data, what are the rights/duties of IoT solutions adopters towards t...
In his keynote at 18th Cloud Expo, Andrew Keys, Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise, provided an overview of the evolution of the Internet and the Database and the future of their combination – the Blockchain. Andrew Keys is Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise. He comes to ConsenSys Enterprise with capital markets, technology and entrepreneurial experience. Previously, he worked for UBS investment bank in equities analysis. Later, he was responsible for the creation and distribution of life settl...
With tough new regulations coming to Europe on data privacy in May 2018, Calligo will explain why in reality the effect is global and transforms how you consider critical data. EU GDPR fundamentally rewrites the rules for cloud, Big Data and IoT. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Adam Ryan, Vice President and General Manager EMEA at Calligo, examined the regulations and provided insight on how it affects technology, challenges the established rules and will usher in new levels of diligence arou...
Organizations planning enterprise data center consolidation and modernization projects are faced with a challenging, costly reality. Requirements to deploy modern, cloud-native applications simultaneously with traditional client/server applications are almost impossible to achieve with hardware-centric enterprise infrastructure. Compute and network infrastructure are fast moving down a software-defined path, but storage has been a laggard. Until now.
Digital Transformation is much more than a buzzword. The radical shift to digital mechanisms for almost every process is evident across all industries and verticals. This is often especially true in financial services, where the legacy environment is many times unable to keep up with the rapidly shifting demands of the consumer. The constant pressure to provide complete, omnichannel delivery of customer-facing solutions to meet both regulatory and customer demands is putting enormous pressure on...
Dion Hinchcliffe is an internationally recognized digital expert, bestselling book author, frequent keynote speaker, analyst, futurist, and transformation expert based in Washington, DC. He is currently Chief Strategy Officer at the industry-leading digital strategy and online community solutions firm, 7Summits.
IoT is at the core or many Digital Transformation initiatives with the goal of re-inventing a company's business model. We all agree that collecting relevant IoT data will result in massive amounts of data needing to be stored. However, with the rapid development of IoT devices and ongoing business model transformation, we are not able to predict the volume and growth of IoT data. And with the lack of IoT history, traditional methods of IT and infrastructure planning based on the past do not app...
"Akvelon is a software development company and we also provide consultancy services to folks who are looking to scale or accelerate their engineering roadmaps," explained Jeremiah Mothersell, Marketing Manager at Akvelon, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
More and more brands have jumped on the IoT bandwagon. We have an excess of wearables – activity trackers, smartwatches, smart glasses and sneakers, and more that track seemingly endless datapoints. However, most consumers have no idea what “IoT” means. Creating more wearables that track data shouldn't be the aim of brands; delivering meaningful, tangible relevance to their users should be. We're in a period in which the IoT pendulum is still swinging. Initially, it swung toward "smart for smart...
IoT is rapidly becoming mainstream as more and more investments are made into the platforms and technology. As this movement continues to expand and gain momentum it creates a massive wall of noise that can be difficult to sift through. Unfortunately, this inevitably makes IoT less approachable for people to get started with and can hamper efforts to integrate this key technology into your own portfolio. There are so many connected products already in place today with many hundreds more on the h...
Here are the Top 20 Twitter Influencers of the month as determined by the Kcore algorithm, in a range of current topics of interest from #IoT to #DeepLearning. To run a real-time search of a given term in our website and see the current top influencers, click on the topic name. Among the top 20 IoT influencers, ThingsEXPO ranked #14 and CloudEXPO ranked #17.